The Attitudes of Armies Toward Revolutions

Volume 1|Issue 4| Sep 2013 |Research Papers and Policy Reports

Abstract

This paper examines the variables that could affect the attitude of armies towards revolutions. These variables are numerous and diverse, and they differ depending on the nature of the armies and the societies from which they emerge, as well as the international climate in which they exist. As such, the paper argues that the fate of revolutions is determined - with rare exceptions - by the attitude of the army in terms of its bias toward the revolution or toward the existing regime confronting it. The paper also explores societal factors and their role in determining the behavior of the army and its attitude towards revolution, especially in societies characterized by ethnic, religious, and sectarian diversity. The paper looks to Syria as a clear model of the phenomenon within the context of Arab revolutions and uprisings. The paper concludes that the ease or difficulty of predicting the behavior of armies towards revolutions varies between different cases given the multiplicity of factors that could affect it.

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Professor of Political Science at the University of Texas and Frank C. Erwin, Jr. Centennial Professor of Government. Among his recent works are The Soldier and the Changing State: Building Democratic Armies in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, and Democratic Breakdown and the Decline of the Russian Army. He also co-edited the book Is Democracy Exportable? published by Cambridge University Press.

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