Lebanon’s Presidential Vacuum: Awaiting Regional and International Changes

The election of a president in Lebanon is an important event not because of the person or their powers—since indeed the role lost its power after the Taif Agreement—but because the role of president is specifically the role of the region’s only Christian Arab president. With no president in place from 2014 onward, the country risks serious presidential vacuum, with no candidate reaching the necessary majority in the Lebanese system. The condition of a two-thirds quorum in every election session makes it impossible – given current party splits— to elect a president unless the leader is agreed upon through enforced regional and international equalizations, or a change in the balance of power by military dominance, as happened in previous presidential elections. This paper examines Lebanon’s current impasse, its history, and the possible future.

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Abstract

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The election of a president in Lebanon is an important event not because of the person or their powers—since indeed the role lost its power after the Taif Agreement—but because the role of president is specifically the role of the region’s only Christian Arab president. With no president in place from 2014 onward, the country risks serious presidential vacuum, with no candidate reaching the necessary majority in the Lebanese system. The condition of a two-thirds quorum in every election session makes it impossible – given current party splits— to elect a president unless the leader is agreed upon through enforced regional and international equalizations, or a change in the balance of power by military dominance, as happened in previous presidential elections. This paper examines Lebanon’s current impasse, its history, and the possible future.

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