Turkey and the Issue of Military Intervention in its Backyard

صورة توضيحية

Turkey faces critical choices regarding urgent military intervention in its backyard. It must either respond to the escalating calls and demands to intervene directly, give priority to its own overall reading of the domestic and regional scenes and put its interests ahead of snap reactions, or maintain an ambiguous position that comprises solidarity and support for the international coalition against ISIL without becoming directly embroiled militarily. All of these choices have costs and benefits on both the local and regional levels. This paper discusses the framework governing Turkish military intervention and its constraints, the overall strategy suggested by Ankara regarding Syria, the preconditions for its military intervention, and the threshold which will make intervention inevitable, all in the light of the major development underway in Syria, Iraq, and the Kurdish regions and their implications for Turkey.

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Abstract

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Turkey faces critical choices regarding urgent military intervention in its backyard. It must either respond to the escalating calls and demands to intervene directly, give priority to its own overall reading of the domestic and regional scenes and put its interests ahead of snap reactions, or maintain an ambiguous position that comprises solidarity and support for the international coalition against ISIL without becoming directly embroiled militarily. All of these choices have costs and benefits on both the local and regional levels. This paper discusses the framework governing Turkish military intervention and its constraints, the overall strategy suggested by Ankara regarding Syria, the preconditions for its military intervention, and the threshold which will make intervention inevitable, all in the light of the major development underway in Syria, Iraq, and the Kurdish regions and their implications for Turkey.

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