The Security Dilemma of Influence: Shi'i Transnationalism and the Limits of Iranian Foreign Policy

Volume 13|Issue 77| Nov 2025 |Articles

Abstract

​​​​The Islamic Republic's foreign policy, grounded in a revolutionary commitment to Shiʿi transnationalism, has long been viewed as a central mechanism for securing Iran's regional influence and post-revolutionary identity. Yet recent developments, most notably the June 2025 war with Israel, raise critical questions about the sustainability of this approach. While much scholarship has explored Iran's identity-driven foreign policy, less attention has been paid to the chronic contradictions it generates within Iran's ontological security framework, or how these contradictions both shape and constrain Iran's regional conduct. This study approaches the problem by theorising Iran's predicament as an ontological trap, a condition in which identity-affirming foreign policy routines produce chronic insecurity rather than stabilisation. It introduces the concept of a security dilemma of influence to explain how transnational networks (once strategic assets) now provoke nationalist contestation and narrative fatigue in Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon.

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​Associate Professor in International Relations of the Middle East and Director of Centre for Islamic & West Asian Studies, Royal Holloway, University of London​.

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