In the US-Israel war on Iran, decapitation strikes, Hormuz disruption, and hybrid warfare have transformed the conflict into a global systemic risk event. De-escalation depends on rebuilding risk management institutions, particularly in maritime and nuclear domains, rather than relying solely on deterrence. With the war representing a case of risk politics, security is shaped by emotional governance – i.e. fear, anxiety, and anger – and a fragmented “security mosaic” of state and non-state actors. Anxiety, anger, and risk-attribution dynamics intensify escalation while undermining possibilities for negotiations.
